Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will eventually lose but all factions has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
